This article points out the cataclysmic power shift that would take place in the event of Saudi Arabia’s descent into political turmoil, and briefly covers some of the catalysts that could bring about such an event. Overall, the oppressive policies towards the Shia minority carried out by the Sunni-dominated Saudi monarchy are detrimental to the country’s national security. The religious disparities in the country have given the monarchy’s enemies—primarily Iran and Russia—a weakness to exploit. This article does not give evidence of any clandestine operations taking place within the Kingdom; however, it gives evidence that Iran and Russia have much to gain and virtually nothing to lose if the country was to spiral into violence like so many others in the region.
In the past few years, especially after the outbreak of the Arab Spring in late 2010, Saudi Arabia has attempted to assert its military dominance in the Middle East region to realize two objectives: first, to maintain the status quo in the Gulf neighborhood through direct military interventions and the use of force; and secondly, to contain the rise of Iran, which Riyadh views as a destabilizing power in the whole Middle East region. Under the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, who ascended to the throne in January 2015, the military assertiveness has taken a new dimension, in terms of launching an air assault on Yemen in late March last year to downsize Houthi power and increasing support for the Syrian rebel group – the Islamic Army to topple the Bashar Al-Assad government, Iran’s only Arab ally. This piece probes Saudi Arabia’s potential and limitations to rise as the Middle East’s dominant power and concludes that Riyadh’s bid to emerge as the region’s preeminent military power and control regional affairs may come up short.