The fundamental question of whether or not the Green Movement’s opposition leaders were successful in their attempts to change the political landscape in Iran first lies in understanding the premise behind the organization and secondly recognizing the actual goals of the leadership. Consequently, this article analyzes these questions as a framework for developing a comparative analysis between revolutions and civil rights movements as a means to understand both the intent and outcomes of the Green Movement. From this analysis, lessons learned are put forth as a means to establish a series of recommendations for future Western political engagements with Iran. In doing so, the hope is that a political dialogue will emerge between Western governments that both alleviate the current tensions while also addressing security concerns in the region.
This article focuses on how information and communication technology (ICT) influences the behavior of authoritarian regimes. Modern information and communication tools can challenge authoritarian rule, but the same technology can be used by savvy regimes to buttress their own interests. The relationship of technology and political power is more accurately conceived of as a contested space in which competitors vie for dominance and as a neutral tool that is blind to value judgments of good versus evil. A realist understanding of the nature and limits of technology is vital in order to truly evaluate how ICT impacts the relative strength of intransigent regimes fighting to stay in power and those on the disadvantaged side of power agitating for change. This is particularly relevant when examining both regimes that have survived and those that have fallen in the wake of the Arab Spring. The cases of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran are used to demonstrate why some regimes fail in this pursuit, while others thrive.
Since 2011, Saudi Arabia experienced the largest and longest protest movement in its modern history. This article outlines how small protests inspired by the so-called “Arab Spring” and in solidarity with the uprising in neighboring Bahrain developed into a sustained youth protest movement with its own particular demands and frames of references. At the local level, the article shows how the emergence of this protest movement affected the political and social dynamics within the Saudi Shi’a community. The government reacted with repression and an anti-Shi’a sectarian rhetoric that ensured that the “Saudi Spring” in the Eastern Province failed to spill over to the rest of the country. The case study of the Eastern Province protest movement in 2011 and 2012 shows that, while new media are good organizational tools for protesters, personal networks, a semi-autonomous public sphere, and histories of political subversion facilitate a protest movement.