This article assesses the effect of the Arab Uprising on MENA within a historical sociology framework. Expectations of benign outcomes have not been realized. The weakening of the Arab republics has deepened their penetration and dependency and shifted the balance of power to the monarchies and non-Arab MENA states. Trans-state discourse has empowered Islamists and sectarian narratives. Outcomes can be seen in the continuing dependency of Egypt, state failure in Syria and Iraq and the collapse of the liberal peace between Turkey and Syria.