Most, if not all, post-World War II non-constitutional exits from power by recently-installed leaders have been caused by elite coups, not popular uprisings. The recent experience of Egypt, where the post-Mubarak government collapsed after almost uninterrupted protests since its first day in office, offers a striking counterexample to this pattern. Our theoretical model, incorporating protest into a dynamic Downsian framework, features the significant role of social media and the absence of partisan or personalized leadership. In equilibrium, it is possible to have recurrent protests. Moreover, even non-radical incumbents with wide support can suffer from them. We show that recurrent revolutions feature the emergence of new dictators on the opposite side of the political spectrum.
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National Research University Higher School of Economics, University of California, University of Chicago
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Dagaev, Dmitry and Lamberova, Natalia and Sobolev, Anton and Sonin, Konstantin, Recurrent Revolutions (October 30, 2015).
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