In the past year al Qaeda has suffered a series of staggering blows that have severely damaged the group and will irrevocably alter the way it operates. Last spring, Osama bin Laden was killed in a dramatic raid on his compound in Pakistan, followed by strikes on a number of other prominent al Qaeda leaders, including Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman in Pakistan, and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed in Somalia, among others. Further, al Qaeda was caught off-guard by the “Arab Spring” revolutions that broke out across the Middle East and North Africa. These revolutions have since succeeded in toppling several regional strongmen, an avowed goal of al Qaeda that it has been unable to accomplish through terrorism. With al Qaeda’s leaders on the defensive and the efficacy of its ideology threatened by a new generation of political activists, many policymakers are increasingly questioning the future of the group.

Just as al Qaeda is confronted with a shifting and uncertain environment, so too are the organizations responsible for countering the movement. In particular, the U.S. homeland security enterprise, including but not limited to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), will be faced not only with a dynamic and evolving terrorist threat, but an increasingly difficult fiscal and political environment. Given these challenges, DHS will have to make critical decisions about programs and resources in order to maximize their ability to prevent future attacks on the homeland. In such a daunting environment, information about the terrorist threat will prove absolutely vital to crafting an effective and efficient defense. If we are to determine the best path forward for the homeland security enterprise, we must examine the current state and potential future of the al Qaeda movement.