In this article, I argue that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted to improve relations with Syria because he wanted Turkey to play a leading role in the Arab world. This role is promoted by the United States which aims at creating an alliance between Turkey and the Arab states to block Russia, China, and Iran from having access to the East Mediterranean or the Indian Ocean. Turkey’s reward would be to have access to Arab markets and oil. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was tempted by the United States, Turkey, and conservative Arab regimes to sever his ties with Iran, which he refused to do. Therefore, the former powers supported the Syrian uprising (which started as domestic protests against dictatorship, corruption, and misrule) to topple al-Assad. However, two and half years since the Syrian uprising started, the al-Assad regime seems to be resisting the attempts of his opponents to topple it, which would mean a failure of Erdogan in his political bet and might even lead to his downfall, especially after the eruption of protests against Erdogan throughout Turkey in early June 2013.
During the last decade, the Turkish constitution was the ultimate source of political crises on numerous occasions, but Turkey might be blessed with the greatest chance ever to create a new highest document. This policy brief outlines some of the ingredients that should be included, and argues that the process, and the final product, can be an inspiration for the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole.
We argue in this paper that the Arab Spring has opened a window of opportunity not just to create stability and democracy in one of the most unstable regions of the world, but also for revitalizing Turkey-EU relations. In theory, Turkey-EU cooperation can make a decisive difference in determining the outcome of the triangular relationship between stability, development, and democratization in the Arab region. In normative terms, as an opportunity, it must be turned into an advantage. From a practical perspective, however, transforming the window of opportunity into policy output is linked to the policy leadership of the sides involved to undergo a paradigm shift in their approach to the region and toward one another.
The EU now has a real opportunity to positively contribute to the future of the Middle East. But to do so successfully it must engage in dialogue with all local stakeholders and encourage greater regional cooperation.