This paper explores the impact of political instability on firms in the context of Tunisia, which experienced a surge in political instability events after the 2011 Jasmine revolution. Using a new dataset, we show that political instability was a major concern for small and exporting firms as well as those that were operating in the tourism sector, those that suffered from acts of vandalism or arson, and those that were located in the interior region of Tunisia. More importantly, we find strong evidence that political instability was the most damaging constraint to firm growth in Tunisia after the Arab Spring.

We model core demands for better governance (political, economic and institutional), more employment and less consumer price inflation using a methodological innovation on the complete elimination of cross-country differences in signals susceptible of sparking social revolts. The empirical evidence based on 14 MENA countries show that the Arab Spring was predictable in 2007 to occur between January 2011 and April 2012. While the findings predict the wave of cross-country revolutions with almost mathematical precision, caveats and cautions are discussed for the scholar to understand the expositional dimensions of the empirics.

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between corruption, political instability and economic growth. We first show how these variables interact by allowing for bidirectional causality between each two of the three variables for which we employ a panel VAR model on a dataset of 140 countries over the period of 1990-2017. Then, we exploit the incidence of the Arab Spring, as an exogenous shock, to measure the short-term effects of political shocks on corruption levels, political stability and economic growth using the differences-in-differences (DiD) framework.

It’s a short allegory to present the case for the importance of Political stability in the economic progress of a country. The Arab spring protests were seen as strengthening democracy in the Arab world. Notwithstanding the surprise Arab spring brought in shape of further destabilizing Middle East, a similar environment of unrest and protests in a practicing democracy like Pakistan capture same dynamics of uncertainty that dampen economic destabilization. The paper briefly covers PTI’s sit in protests in year 2014 to make a case for how political instability stifled economic progress in Pakistan though momentarily.

The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.