The South Mediterranean region has considerable endowments in natural gas, oil, iron ore, phosphates, steel, wood extracts, zinc and fisheries, as well as for Mediterranean agriculture products. Daniel FIOTT would like to see this potential translated into something he would call ‘resource-full revolutions’. Specific initiatives would include a Euro-Med Energy Community, bearing in mind the experience of the EU in extending its energy policies into south-east Europe, which places an important emphasis on harmonization of the regulatory environment. He refers also to the Mediterranean Solar Plan of the Union for the Mediterranean, and the intentions of the EU to conclude new trade liberalization agreements for fisheries and agriculture. At the G20 level there were attempts this year to advance commodity policies, such as with the new Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which FAO is entrusted to develop, but these remain to prove their value.

We develop a continuous time dynamic game to provide with a benchmark theory of Arab Spring-type events. We consider a resource-dependent economy with two interacting groups, the elite vs. the citizens, and two political regimes, dictatorship vs. a freer regime. Transition to the freer regime can only be achieved if citizens decide to revolt given the concession/repression policy of the elite. Departing from the related literature, the revolution optimal timing is an explicit control variable in the hands of citizens. The elite is the strategic leader: she ultimately chooses her policy knowing the reaction function of citizens. In this framework, we provide with a full equilibrium analysis of the political regime switching game and notably emphasize the role of the direct switching cost of the citizens and of the elite’s self-preservation options. In particular, we show how the incorporation of explicit revolution timing may change the conventional wisdom in the related institutional change literature. Finally, we emphasize how the theory may help explaining some key features of the Arab Spring.