During 2011/12, East Bank tribal youths in Jordan mobilized a new wave of political opposition through the Hirak movement. Reflecting generational change in their communities, as well as the historical erosion of tribal-state relations, these protest groups demanded sweeping democratic reforms from the monarchy. They also utilized language and methods more radical than the established legal opposition. This changing dynamic of tribal politics holds enormous implications for politics and stability within the Hashemite kingdom.
This article points out the cataclysmic power shift that would take place in the event of Saudi Arabia’s descent into political turmoil, and briefly covers some of the catalysts that could bring about such an event. Overall, the oppressive policies towards the Shia minority carried out by the Sunni-dominated Saudi monarchy are detrimental to the country’s national security. The religious disparities in the country have given the monarchy’s enemies—primarily Iran and Russia—a weakness to exploit. This article does not give evidence of any clandestine operations taking place within the Kingdom; however, it gives evidence that Iran and Russia have much to gain and virtually nothing to lose if the country was to spiral into violence like so many others in the region.
The fate of regimes after the Arab Spring has prompted scholars to reconsider how authoritarian institutions affect mass protest. Why did Mubarak fall, but not King Mohammed VI of Morocco? Are the paths to regime change different in monarchies? This article argues that monarchies have a unique institutional feature that other authoritarian regimes lack: they can democratize without destabilizing the leadership by transitioning to a democratic constitutional monarchy. The promise of constitutional monarchy affects protestor demands and weakens mass mobilization for regime change. Kings do not survive protest waves because they are smarter, more legitimate, or more likely to institute meaningful reforms. Nor are they invulnerable; monarchies can and do crumble. But monarchs are less likely than other authoritarian rulers to be overthrown via mass protest. This article provides a theory of the differences between monarchies and other authoritarian regimes, drawing on cross-national studies and a case study of Morocco.
