The article contends that the “Arab Spring” needs to be analyzed through three analytical frameworks – democratization, authoritarian adaptation/succession, and state-failure – and that all three are unfolding simultaneously in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Demonstrations in the Arab spring were successful in affecting the tenure of incumbent authoritarian rulers where they occurred in national capitals that were also primate cities. The outstanding examples are Tunis and Cairo. Where the national capital was not a primate city street demonstrations had limited effects or failed to oust incumbents as in Bahrain, Libya, Syria and Yemen. In such instances incumbents were more likely to be ousted by civil war than relatively peaceful urban uprising.